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Forecasts regarding the rapeseed market in 2024

Can we look to the year 2024 with hope in the context of the rapeseed market situation?
It turns out, not entirely. The worsening supply-demand situation in the rapeseed market is predicted by Credit Agricole Bank. The key risk factors for this forecast are the development of agrometeorological conditions among key oilseed producers. Currently, it’s price fluctuates between 1650-1860 PLN. It appears that there are indications that it may be more expensive next year.

Credit Agricole analysts, referring to the USDA report, predict that rapeseed production in the 2023/2024 season will decrease to 87.0 million tons, compared to 88.8 million tons in the 2022/2023 season (-2.1%). What is the reason for this decline? Analysts forecast that it is the result of lower yields in Australia (-38.4% - a negative effect of the El Niño phenomenon).

On the other hand, global rapeseed consumption in the upcoming season will increase by 1.2%, contributing to its relatively low prices. In conditions where production exceeds consumption in the 2023/2024 season, there will be a decrease in global rapeseed stocks to 7.4 million tons compared to 7.8 million tons in the 2022/2023 season (-5.9%). As a result, the stocks-to-use ratio will decrease to 8.6% from 9.2%.

"We believe that despite the forecasted decrease in rapeseed stocks, the increase in its prices will be limited by the rebuilding of global stocks of other oilseeds, especially soybeans and sunflower seeds. As a result, we expect that in the coming quarters, rapeseed prices will follow a mild upward trend," reads in the AgroMapa quarterly.

At Centro-chem, we keep our finger on the pulse and closely monitor market trends. Rapeseed is an important issue for us and our Clients, especially in the context of the glycerin produced from it.

We invite you to contact our Sales Department at handel@centro-chem.pl